Why are there no live service roguelikes?

Roguelikes seem perfect for a live service game.  A repetitive game loop with deep replayability, standardized content for streamlined production, a data-rich environment with built-in A/B testing, and a long tail of hyper-engaged players.  Yet, roguelikes rarely monetize with in-game microtransactions that are typically effective at capturing revenue from those hardcore players.  Why are there so few live service roguelikes?  

That begs the question – what is there to sell in a roguelike?  The usual cookie-cutter monetization options don’t translate directly.  Pay-for-power doesn’t work great, as roguelikes are characterized by their non-persistent power progression.  Pay-to-skip-levels a la Candy Crush doesn’t work as roguelikes are not level-based.  Cosmetics don’t work in single-player games, as there is nobody to peacock to.  Roguelikes need to rethink microtransactions to fit their gameplay loop.  

With all that said, roguelikes don’t strictly fit all the criteria above.  Modern roguelikes usually have a dash of persistent power progression, especially in action games like Dead Cells and Hades, which could be monetized.  Co-op roguelikes such as Gunfire Reborn and Risk of Rain 2 add the social dynamics that could sell cosmetics.  Temporary within-round power is also an option, as seen in games like Survivor.io and Squad Busters, though the designs seem nascent.  Once somebody cracks the code on how to monetize roguelikes, it will unlock a lot of new possibilities.

An alternative explanation for the lack of live-service roguelikes is that they are predominantly indie PC games.  Roguelikes have been on the rise for a decade, with breakout hits like Binding of Isaac (2011), Slay the Spire (2018), and Vampire Survivors (2022) drawing successively increased attention.  However, they are all indie games, which tend to sell with a box price rather than free-to-play with microtransactions.  Designing monetization and running live operations are expensive, and indie developers lack the resources and risk appetite.  Indie developers opt to sell games with a flat sticker price, and so that’s how roguelikes are priced.

It’s not clear to me why all the notable roguelikes are indies.  At this point, you’d think some big budget studio would have made a highly polished clone.  Perhaps it takes a small tight-knit team to craft a roguelike’s finely tuned and intricately linked systems.  Perhaps the roguelike template is a cost-cutting tactic, and big studios are happy to crank out dozens of levels.  In any case, when we do eventually see a successful AAA roguelike (not these half-baked side modes that Blizzard keeps trying), I suspect they will throw their full arsenal of microtransactions at it.