Pokemon Pocket’s Perfunctory Promise

Intentionally Bad Trading

Pokemon TCG Pocket, a mobile adaptation of the famous card game, is introducing trading this week. Trading was a promised feature when the game launched 3 months ago, and they’re finally delivering. However, since the game gives players free cards just for logging in every day, the glut of free-to-play supply may cause problems for their market. Let’s look at how Pokemon Pocket restricts trading to deal with these problems, and make predictions on how trading will pan out.

Prediction: Pokemon Pocket’s trading system will be intentionally restrictive and unpopular. It is a perfunctory promise, not a meaningful feature.

But first…

Why Promise Trading?

Most free-to-play digital card games do NOT allow for trading – Hearthstone, MtG Arena, Marvel Snap, Yugioh Master Duel, etc. While trading is natural in a physical setting, the supply of paper cards is restricted by actual purchases. In contrast, digital card games give players free cards just for logging in and playing every day. If they allowed for trading, the massive supply of free cards would flood the market and undercut their sales.

However, Pokemon card games are a different beast. Pokemon card collecting is very popular, but the card game itself is not. Most kids who collect pokemon cards don’t even know the rules of the card game. Nor is it really worth learning, in my opinion – the game manages to have complex rules yet repetitive and non-interactive gameplay. Collecting the cards was fun enough on its own; kids would open packs, look for their favorite shiny pokemon, and fill binders to show off to their friends.

Pokemon Pocket leans into this emphasis on collection; the pack-opening experience razzles and dazzles, from the tactile ripping open of a pack to the delightful flourishes for every new card discovered. Even the in-game currencies are centered around pack opening – rather than abstract “gold” or “credits”, the game’s primary currency is “hourglasses” which represent how many hours faster you’ll get to open your next pack. The card battling has been simplified and streamlined for mobile and looks great visually, but the actual gameplay is pretty lackluster and repetitive. The game seems to know this and leans away from battling; none of the daily missions require you to battle, and there is no ranking ladder. Cracking packs is where it’s at.

But if battling is boring, what’s the point of collecting cards? Pokemon Pocket offers systems to support collecting, like binders to show off to your friends and missions that ask you to collect themed sets of cards, but it’s not that compelling. Trading is the “end game” for paper TCG collectors, and Pokemon Pocket felt obliged to deliver.

Restrictive, High-Friction Trading

Pokemon Pocket announced several restrictions to trading in order to deal with the aforementioned free-to-play supply glut. Here’s the official announcement, but in summary:

• Trades are only between friends

• Trades must be 1-for-1 exchanges for cards of the same rarity

• Only old card sets are tradable

• Only low-rarity cards are tradable

• Resources must be consumed in order to trade

These rules are designed to help latecomers and competitive battlers round out their collections, and to avoid impacting serious collectors. Card acquisition is still centered on cracking booster packs, as they are the only source of the most desirable cards (new or high rarity). Frictions from UI/UX and trading fees further impede trading.

The announcement is unclear on how specifically trades will take place. Do both players have to be online at the same time to conduct a trade? Will players propose and accept trades from an offer list, asynchronously? Or perhaps players can make a “Looking for Charizard” post, and others can propose offers to them. The fluidity of the system has huge implications for how active and liquid the marketplace will be.

The 1-for-1 rarity rule is an oddity. I believe it will function like a price control. Without dynamic trades like 3 Pikachus for a Charizard, there is no “price discovery”. Differences in cards’ desirability will not become apparent in the market. This will avoid scenarios where weak but rare cards have embarrassingly low prices. Players’ valuations of cards will be anchored to their rarity, which helps to keep casual players happy about finding their favorite pokemon, even if the broader market thinks it’s worthless.

The initial announcement post seemed somewhat apprehensive about trading. The post is non-committal and vague on the details. Specifically, they say:

We’ll continue to monitor player feedback and assess future updates to the trade feature while keeping in mind how to balance both the ease and enjoyability of collecting.

I suspect Pokemon Pocket is wary about disrupting a system that has proven incredibly profitable. They likely fear that trading will reduce card purchases, but they are also afraid that an excessively restrictive system will anger fans who were promised trading. The game’s official website and news blog make no mention of it. My hunch is that Pokemon Pocket is aiming to quietly deliver on a promise without upsetting their players or harming their bottom line.

Prediction – Nobody Actually Trades

Motivation to trade will be very low. Due to the one-for-one rarity restriction, there is little profit to be gained from trading. You can’t play the market to get rich. There will be no dreams of trading up from a paperclip to a house. The most you can get from your ☆-rarity card is another ☆ card.

Without a profit motive, the game only presents you two reasons to acquire cards. You might want to acquire an unowned card to complete your collection, and you might want a second copy for battling (decks allow you to have up to 2 copies of each card). You will never want more than 2 copies of a card. Moreover, since the rarest and newest cards are untradable, you likely can’t acquire the cards you really want from trading.

Trading will be clunky and high-friction, and rarely used. There is a specific niche of enthusiastic low-spend players who will care about trading. Highly engaged whales who have bought lots of packs will own most of the cards they need, and are unable to trade for the high-rarity cards they seek. Casual players who don’t want to do research online or use third party trade-finder websites won’t bother with the hassle. Thus we’re left with the subset of high-engagement low-spend players like myself who will try to trade.

Finding the specific trades you are looking for will be very difficult. Trade liquidity will be very thin, due to the combination of low participation and high friction. Without an intermediary currency or pecuniary good, trades will require a coincidence of wants. Moreover, that coincidence of wants needs to be between cards in the same rarity tier.

Sophisticated trading sites will not gain traction. While such third-party sites often appear for popular games (ex: Counterstrike, MtG Online, Diablo), they are usually used and maintained by enthusiasts. However, Pokemon Pocket’s restrictive trading is unprofitable and unappealing to players with deep collections. Small-scale trading will be facilitated through social media, but an enthusiast trading community will not emerge.